Evaluating new opportunities is always a high-stakes process for E&P companies.Expensive decisions must be made quickly, but without sacrificing accuracy. A mistake could cost millions of dollars in losses or opportunity costs. But speed and accuracy can be especially difficult when an operator is evaluating opportunities in a new area with no proprietary data available.
The typical process when evaluating opportunities in new areas involves forecasting remaining reserves or estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) of a well or type curve using decline curve analysis. Based on this information, a reservoir engineer could predict whether a single well or series of wells would be a positive investment.
The traditional method of forecasting EURs for new areas includes collecting public data that is often incomplete and imperfect, importing it into a modeling platform, and then manually selecting a decline curve model. The decline curve model selected may or may not be the best fit, which leaves plenty of room for error. After running the decline cure analysis, the result is a single output – one EUR estimate that doesn’t provide any indication of the reliability of the prediction or the potential for error.
Doesn’t this seem like a risky way to make such expensive decisions? At Drillinginfo, we thought that there had to be a better way to forecast reserves and make decisions about new opportunities – a more innovative, technologically-forward way that would let the data drive these decisions. A one-stop shop so customers can complete the entire EUR forecasting process – from data selection to results – on a single platform. So we came up with a suite of tools to help make faster, more accurate EUR estimates that minimize risk and maximize confidence in important decisions.
Let’s see how it works:
First of all, relevant data is available at the click of a button. No more searching through messy, incomplete public data. No more exporting and importing data between multiple platforms to run one workflow. Drillinginfo data has been scrubbed and is easily filter-able so customers can quickly find the information they need and immediately begin analysis.
Next, the tool is able to automatically select the best decline curve model, eliminating the possibility of human error. Of course, if a customer has a favorite, tried-and-true model, he or she can select from six different models to apply.
The results of the model show not just a best estimate for EUR, but the spread around that estimate. Now, instead of relying on a single number to forecast reserves, customers can identify the P10, P25, P50, P75, and P90 values for the estimate as well.
The next time you’re evaluating a new opportunity, you don’t have to sacrifice speed or accuracy. With the right technology, you can easily minimize your risk, maximize your accuracy and confidence, and make better decisions.
Best of all, this tool is automatically available to all Drillinginfo subscribers. If you have a Drillinginfo login, you already have access. Click on the Production Workspace button the next time you’re in the Product Gallery to try it out. Expect even more new innovations coming your way soon as part of our commitment to continuous improvement and innovation. If you want to learn more about the probabilistic decline curve analysis tool, click here to check out a case study, and/or watch the video below.
What do you think? Leave a comment below.