DI Blog

Insights across the energy value chain

Natural gas storage inventories decreased by 119 Bcf for the week ending Feb. 2, according to the EIA’s weekly report. The draw was roughly in line with market expectations. Natural gas prices are up slightly with the March contract trading at $2.72 per MMBtu at the time of writing.

Today’s storage withdrawal parallels last year’s draw and the 5-year average of 152 Bcf. Working gas storage inventories dropped to 2.078 Tcf, which is 503 Bcf below last year and 393 Bcf below the 5-year average.

See the chart below for projections of the end-of-season storage inventories as of April 1, the end of the withdrawal season.

This Week in Fundamentals

The summary below is based on PointLogic’s flow data and DI analysis for the week ending Feb. 8, 2018.

  • Supply:

–        Dry gas production is up 0.4 Bcf/d week-on-week, with Texas (+0.2 Bcf/d) and Southeast (+0.2 Bcf/d) increasing production.

–        Canadian imports are flat week-on-week.

  • Demand:

Demand saw a week-on-week increase as heating demand increased, especially in the Midwest

–        Domestic natural gas demand is up 7.8 Bcf/d, with ResCom (+5.2 Bcf/d), power (+1.8 Bcf/d), and industrial (+0.8 Bcf/d) all increasing.

–        LNG and Mexico exports are basically flat week-on-week.

Total supply is up 0.4 Bcf/d, and total demand is up 8.5 Bcf/d. A higher withdrawal is expected next week, in the mid-100s range. This draw compares with a 114 Bcf withdrawal reported last year and a 5-year average of 155.

 

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